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Following Lloyd et al [27], we assumed a negative-binomial offspring distribution, which was parametrized by a reproduction number and a dispersion parameter (k). When k is sufficiently low (ie, less than 1), SSE are more likely to occur. Applying the branching process theory, k could be estimated by fitting the transmission cluster data to a cluster size distribution [28], which describes the probability of clusters with a size of z seeded by u primary cases.
JMIR Public Health Surveill 2023;9:e44251
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Compared with other distributions, such as Poisson distribution, the dispersed distributional assumption can account for transmission heterogeneity via specification of the dispersion parameter (k) and effective reproductive number (R), which have been found to be more rigorous for modeling the offspring distribution when epidemics are characterized by superspreading events [15,16].
JMIR Public Health Surveill 2021;7(11):e30968
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