New Surveillance Metrics for Alerting Community-Acquired Outbreaks of Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants Using Imported Case Data: Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach

Amy Ming-Fang Yen   ¹ , PhD ;   Tony Hsiu-Hsi Chen   ² , PhD ;   Wei-Jung Chang   ² , PhD ;   Ting-Yu Lin   ² , PhD ;   Grace Hsiao-Hsuan Jen   ¹ , PhD ;   Chen-Yang Hsu   ^{2, 3} , MD, PhD ;   Sen-Te Wang   ^{4, 5} , MD, PhD ;   Huong Dang   ⁶ , PhD ;   Sam Li-Sheng Chen   ^{1, 7} , PhD

¹ School of Oral Hygiene, College of Oral Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan

² Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan

³ Daichung Hospital, Miaoli, Taiwan

⁴ Department of Family Medicine, Taipei Medical University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan

⁵ Department of Family Medicine, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan

⁶ Department of Economics and Finance, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand

⁷ Research Center of Cancer Translational Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan