Currently submitted to: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Date Submitted: Jul 24, 2020
Open Peer Review Period: Jul 24, 2020 - Aug 7, 2020
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Application of Grey System Theory to Forecast the Neonatal Mortality Rate and Number of Deaths from HIV/AIDS in Children
Mortality rates and deaths from HIV/AIDS report annually and information for forecasting is not complete. According to the characteristics of this data, small size and imperfect, for analysis, we selected grey model first order one variable, GM (1, 1).
To model and forecast the neonatal mortality rate and number of deaths from HIV/AIDS in children in Iran by 2022.
Data is collected and downloaded from World Health Organization (WHO) reports in Iran. In data set, observed values between 2000 and 2013 used to fit models and observed values in 2014 and 2015 used to evaluate the accuracy of model’s predictions. To assess the efficiency of the model fitted and precise of predicted values, we used Forecast Absolute Error (FAE %), small error probability (P) and the proportion of variance (C) indexes.
Simulated results showed that the accuracy of the model GM (1, 1) to predict and forecast in both data sets, but with a little suspicious for AIDS data, are largely appropriate and reliable. Forecasting values at (2018, 2020, 2022) 5, 7 and 9 years later from 2013, for neonatal mortality rate and the number of deaths from HIV/AIDS are (7.97, 7.22, 6.54) and (77.58, 89.52, 103.31) respectively.
In future studies and estimations, we suggest application of Grey Forecasting Models in other health researches that data information is small and imperfect.
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