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Currently accepted at: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance

Date Submitted: Jul 21, 2020
Open Peer Review Period: Jul 21, 2020 - Aug 4, 2020
Date Accepted: Sep 9, 2020
(closed for review but you can still tweet)

This paper has been accepted and is currently in production.

It will appear shortly on 10.2196/22678

The final accepted version (not copyedited yet) is in this tab.

Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.

Serial interval, basic reproduction number and implications for control measures: 120 days experience of COVID-19 outbreak from Jodhpur, India

  • Suman Saurabh; 
  • Mahendra Kumar Verma; 
  • Vaishali Gautam; 
  • Nitesh Kumar; 
  • Akhil Goel; 
  • Manoj Kumar Gupta; 
  • Pankaj Bhardwaj; 
  • Sanjeev Misra; 

ABSTRACT

We aimed to estimate the serial interval and basic reproduction number (R0) for Jodhpur, India and to use it for epidemic projection for next one month. Contact tracing of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals was done to obtain the serial intervals. Aggregate and instantaneous R0 values were derived and epidemic projection was done using R software v4.0.0. Median and 95 percentile values of serial interval were 5.23 days (95%CI 4.72 – 5.79) and 13.20 days (95%CI 10.90 – 18.18), respectively. R0 during the first 30 days of outbreak was 1.62 (95%CI 1.07 – 2.17) which subsequently decreased to 1.15 (95%CI 1.09 – 1.21). Instantaneous R0 ranged from a peak of 3.43 (95%CI 1.71 – 5.74) to 1.12 (95%CI 1.03 – 1.21) as on 6 July 2020. Epidemic projection over next one month was 2131 individuals (95%CI 1799 – 2462). Reduction of transmission by 25% and 50% could lead to 58.7% and 84.0% reduction in epidemic size, respectively. Aggressive control measures reduced R0 indicating prevention of COVID-19 transmission. Further strengthening of control measures could lead to substantial reduction of COVID-19 epidemic size. A data-driven approach at local level was found useful in guiding the public health strategy and surge capacity planning.


 Citation

Please cite as:

Saurabh S, Verma MK, Gautam V, Kumar N, Goel A, Gupta MK, Bhardwaj P, Misra S

Serial interval, basic reproduction number and implications for control measures: 120 days experience of COVID-19 outbreak from Jodhpur, India

JMIR Preprints. 21/07/2020:22678

DOI: 10.2196/preprints.22678

URL: https://preprints.jmir.org/preprint/22678

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