Maintenance Notice

Due to necessary scheduled maintenance, the JMIR Publications website will be unavailable from Wednesday, July 01, 2020 at 8:00 PM to 10:00 PM EST. We apologize in advance for any inconvenience this may cause you.

Who will be affected?


Currently accepted at: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance

Date Submitted: Jul 21, 2020
Open Peer Review Period: Jul 21, 2020 - Aug 4, 2020
Date Accepted: Sep 9, 2020
(closed for review but you can still tweet)

This paper has been accepted and is currently in production.

It will appear shortly on 10.2196/22678

The final accepted version (not copyedited yet) is in this tab.

Warning: This is an author submission that is not peer-reviewed or edited. Preprints - unless they show as "accepted" - should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.

Serial interval, basic reproduction number and implications for control measures: 120 days experience of COVID-19 outbreak from Jodhpur, India

  • Suman Saurabh; 
  • Mahendra Kumar Verma; 
  • Vaishali Gautam; 
  • Nitesh Kumar; 
  • Akhil Goel; 
  • Manoj Kumar Gupta; 
  • Pankaj Bhardwaj; 
  • Sanjeev Misra; 


We aimed to estimate the serial interval and basic reproduction number (R0) for Jodhpur, India and to use it for epidemic projection for next one month. Contact tracing of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals was done to obtain the serial intervals. Aggregate and instantaneous R0 values were derived and epidemic projection was done using R software v4.0.0. Median and 95 percentile values of serial interval were 5.23 days (95%CI 4.72 – 5.79) and 13.20 days (95%CI 10.90 – 18.18), respectively. R0 during the first 30 days of outbreak was 1.62 (95%CI 1.07 – 2.17) which subsequently decreased to 1.15 (95%CI 1.09 – 1.21). Instantaneous R0 ranged from a peak of 3.43 (95%CI 1.71 – 5.74) to 1.12 (95%CI 1.03 – 1.21) as on 6 July 2020. Epidemic projection over next one month was 2131 individuals (95%CI 1799 – 2462). Reduction of transmission by 25% and 50% could lead to 58.7% and 84.0% reduction in epidemic size, respectively. Aggressive control measures reduced R0 indicating prevention of COVID-19 transmission. Further strengthening of control measures could lead to substantial reduction of COVID-19 epidemic size. A data-driven approach at local level was found useful in guiding the public health strategy and surge capacity planning.


Please cite as:

Saurabh S, Verma MK, Gautam V, Kumar N, Goel A, Gupta MK, Bhardwaj P, Misra S

Serial interval, basic reproduction number and implications for control measures: 120 days experience of COVID-19 outbreak from Jodhpur, India

JMIR Preprints. 21/07/2020:22678

DOI: 10.2196/preprints.22678


Download PDF

Request queued. Please wait while the file is being generated. It may take some time.

© The authors. All rights reserved. This is a privileged document currently under peer-review/community review (or an accepted/rejected manuscript). Authors have provided JMIR Publications with an exclusive license to publish this preprint on it's website for review and ahead-of-print citation purposes only. While the final peer-reviewed paper may be licensed under a cc-by license on publication, at this stage authors and publisher expressively prohibit redistribution of this draft paper other than for review purposes.