TY  - JOUR
AU  - Post, Lori
AU  - Culler, Kasen
AU  - Moss, Charles B
AU  - Murphy, Robert L
AU  - Achenbach, Chad J
AU  - Ison, Michael G
AU  - Resnick, Danielle
AU  - Singh, Lauren Nadya
AU  - White, Janine
AU  - Boctor, Michael J
AU  - Welch, Sarah B
AU  - Oehmke, James Francis
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021/4/28
TI  - Surveillance of the Second Wave of COVID-19 in Europe: Longitudinal Trend Analyses
JO  - JMIR Public Health Surveill
SP  - e25695
VL  - 7
IS  - 4
KW  - SARS-CoV-2 surveillance
KW  - wave two
KW  - second wave
KW  - global COVID surveillance
KW  - Europe Public Health Surveillance
KW  - Europe COVID
KW  - Europe surveillance metrics
KW  - dynamic panel data
KW  - generalized method of the moments
KW  - Europe econometrics
KW  - Europe SARS-CoV-2
KW  - Europe COVID surveillance system
KW  - European COVID transmission speed
KW  - European COVID transmission acceleration
KW  - COVID transmission deceleration
KW  - COVID transmission jerk
KW  - COVID 7-day lag
KW  - SARS-CoV-2
KW  - Arellano-Bond estimator
KW  - GMM
KW  - Albania
KW  - Andorra
KW  - Austria
KW  - Belarus
KW  - Belgium
KW  - Bosnia and Herzegovina
KW  - Bulgaria
KW  - Croatia
KW  - Czech Republic
KW  - Denmark
KW  - Estonia
KW  - Finland
KW  - France
KW  - Germany
KW  - Greece
KW  - Greenland
KW  - Hungary
KW  - Iceland
KW  - Ireland
KW  - Isle of Man
KW  - Italy
KW  - Latvia
KW  - Liechtenstein
KW  - Lithuania
KW  - Luxembourg
KW  - Moldova
KW  - Monaco
KW  - Montenegro
KW  - Netherlands
KW  - Norway
KW  - Poland
KW  - Portugal
KW  - Romania
KW  - San Marino
KW  - Serbia
KW  - Slovakia
KW  - Slovenia
KW  - Spain
KW  - Sweden
KW  - Switzerland
KW  - Ukraine
KW  - United Kingdom
KW  - Vatican City
AB  - Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted Europe, resulting in a high caseload and deaths that varied by country. The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has breached the borders of Europe. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders. Objective: This study aimed to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic, speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, to better understand countries at risk for explosive growth and those that are managing the pandemic effectively. Methods: We performed a longitudinal trend analysis and extracted 62 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in Europe as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. Results: New COVID-19 cases slightly decreased from 158,741 (week 1, January 4-10, 2021) to 152,064 (week 2, January 11-17, 2021), and cumulative cases increased from 22,507,271 (week 1) to 23,890,761 (week 2), with a weekly increase of 1,383,490 between January 10 and January 17. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom had the largest 7-day moving averages for new cases during week 1. During week 2, the 7-day moving average for France and Spain increased. From week 1 to week 2, the speed decreased (37.72 to 33.02 per 100,000), acceleration decreased (0.39 to –0.16 per 100,000), and jerk increased (–1.30 to 1.37 per 100,000). Conclusions: The United Kingdom, Spain, and Portugal, in particular, are at risk for a rapid expansion in COVID-19 transmission. An examination of the European region suggests that there was a decrease in the COVID-19 caseload between January 4 and January 17, 2021. Unfortunately, the rates of jerk, which were negative for Europe at the beginning of the month, reversed course and became positive, despite decreases in speed and acceleration. Finally, the 7-day persistence rate was higher during week 2 than during week 1. These measures indicate that the second wave of the pandemic may be subsiding, but some countries remain at risk for new outbreaks and increased transmission in the absence of rapid policy responses. 
SN  - 2369-2960
UR  - https://publichealth.jmir.org/2021/4/e25695
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2196/25695
UR  - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33818391
DO  - 10.2196/25695
ID  - info:doi/10.2196/25695
ER  -