TY  - JOUR
AU  - Lundberg, Alex Lars
AU  - Fox, James Alan
AU  - Mohammad, Hassan
AU  - Mason, Maryann
AU  - Salina, Doreen
AU  - Victorson, David
AU  - Parra-Cardona, Ruben
AU  - Post, Lori Ann
PY  - 2024
DA  - 2024/9/20
TI  - Public Mass Shootings: Counterfactual Trend Analysis of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban
JO  - JMIR Public Health Surveill
SP  - e62952
VL  - 10
KW  - assault weapons
KW  - FAWB
KW  - federal assault weapons ban
KW  - firearms
KW  - guns
KW  - large-capacity magazine
KW  - LCM
KW  - gun policy
KW  - public mass shootings
KW  - weapon
KW  - weapons
KW  - shooting
KW  - shootings
KW  - prevention
KW  - efficacy
KW  - surveillance
KW  - public health
KW  - linear regression
KW  - homicide
KW  - gun
KW  - gun control
KW  - gun injury
KW  - gun injuries
KW  - health policy
KW  - information seeking behavior
KW  - health informatics
AB  - Background: Assault weapon and large-capacity magazine bans are potential tools for policy makers to prevent public mass shootings. However, the efficacy of these bans is a continual source of debate. In an earlier study, we estimated the impact of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) on the number of public mass shooting events in the United States. This study provides an updated assessment with 3 additional years of firearm surveillance data to characterize the longer-term effects. Objective: This study aims to estimate the impact of the FAWB on trends in public mass shootings from 1966 to 2022. Methods: We used linear regression to estimate the impact of the FAWB on the 4-year simple moving average of annual public mass shootings, defined by events with 4 or more deaths in 24 hours, not including the perpetrator. The study period spans 1966 to 2022. The model includes indicator variables for both the FAWB period (1995‐2004) and the period after its removal (2005‐2022). These indicators were interacted with a linear time trend. Estimates were controlled for the national homicide rate. After estimation, the model provided counterfactual estimates of public mass shootings if the FAWB was never imposed and if the FAWB remained in place. Results: The overall upward trajectory in the number of public mass shootings substantially fell while the FAWB was in place. These trends are specific to events in which the perpetrator used an assault weapon or large-capacity magazine. Point estimates suggest the FAWB prevented up to 5 public mass shootings while the ban was active. A continuation of the FAWB and large-capacity magazine ban would have prevented up to 38 public mass shootings, but the CIs become wider as time moves further away from the period of the FAWB. Conclusions: The FAWB, which included a ban on large-capacity magazines, was associated with fewer public mass shooting events, fatalities, and nonfatal gun injuries. Gun control legislation is an important public health tool in the prevention of public mass shootings. 
SN  - 2369-2960
UR  - https://publichealth.jmir.org/2024/1/e62952
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2196/62952
DO  - 10.2196/62952
ID  - info:doi/10.2196/62952
ER  -