TY  - JOUR
AU  - Meng, Fan-Tsui
AU  - Jhuang, Jing-Rong
AU  - Peng, Yan-Teng
AU  - Chiang, Chun-Ju
AU  - Yang, Ya-Wen
AU  - Huang, Chi-Yen
AU  - Huang, Kuo-Ping
AU  - Lee, Wen-Chung
PY  - 2024
DA  - 2024/5/31
TI  - Predicting Lung Cancer Survival to the Future: Population-Based Cancer Survival Modeling Study
JO  - JMIR Public Health Surveill
SP  - e46737
VL  - 10
KW  - lung cancer
KW  - survival
KW  - survivorship-period-cohort model
KW  - prediction
KW  - prognosis
KW  - early diagnosis
KW  - lung cancer screening
KW  - survival trend
KW  - population-based
KW  - population health
KW  - public health
KW  - surveillance
KW  - low-dose computed tomography
AB  - Background: Lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer-related mortality globally, with late diagnoses often resulting in poor prognosis. In response, the Lung Ambition Alliance aims to double the 5-year survival rate by 2025. Objective: Using the Taiwan Cancer Registry, this study uses the survivorship-period-cohort model to assess the feasibility of achieving this goal by predicting future survival rates of patients with lung cancer in Taiwan. Methods: This retrospective study analyzed data from 205,104 patients with lung cancer registered between 1997 and 2018. Survival rates were calculated using the survivorship-period-cohort model, focusing on 1-year interval survival rates and extrapolating to predict 5-year outcomes for diagnoses up to 2020, as viewed from 2025. Model validation involved comparing predicted rates with actual data using symmetric mean absolute percentage error. Results: The study identified notable improvements in survival rates beginning in 2004, with the predicted 5-year survival rate for 2020 reaching 38.7%, marking a considerable increase from the most recent available data of 23.8% for patients diagnosed in 2013. Subgroup analysis revealed varied survival improvements across different demographics and histological types. Predictions based on current trends indicate that achieving the Lung Ambition Alliance’s goal could be within reach. Conclusions: The analysis demonstrates notable improvements in lung cancer survival rates in Taiwan, driven by the adoption of low-dose computed tomography screening, alongside advances in diagnostic technologies and treatment strategies. While the ambitious target set by the Lung Ambition Alliance appears achievable, ongoing advancements in medical technology and health policies will be crucial. The study underscores the potential impact of continued enhancements in lung cancer management and the importance of strategic health interventions to further improve survival outcomes. 
SN  - 2369-2960
UR  - https://publichealth.jmir.org/2024/1/e46737
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2196/46737
UR  - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38819904
DO  - 10.2196/46737
ID  - info:doi/10.2196/46737
ER  -